How Earnings Calls Predict Payment Processing Rates

Most businesses probably aren’t paying attention to earnings calls from their credit card processor. After all, these calls are designed for shareholders and not for businesses using the services.

But your payment processor’s earnings results can give you key insights into what’s ahead for your merchant account.

• Earnings results can often predict upcoming rate increases for merchants.
• If earnings fall short of expectations, processors need to quickly generate more revenue to appease investors.
• Some calls explicitly mention upcoming pricing adjustments or pricing strategies (not always in those exact words, but clearly enough if you know what to look for).

And if your processor’s latest earnings call sounds like a rate hike is on the horizon, you should negotiate better terms ASAP to get out ahead of it. 

The Connection Between Quarterly Earnings Results and Credit Card Processing Fees

On the surface, there isn’t supposed to be a connection between earnings calls and what your business pays to accept credit cards.

Quarterly earnings calls are investor updates (not operational roadmaps for merchants). But in reality, they’re one of the clearest windows into how a processor plans to grow revenue in the short term, which is often at your expense.

These calls exist solely to keep shareholders informed. Company executives use earnings calls to explain:

• How much money the company made
• Whether the performance met expectations
• And most importantly, how they plan to grow next quarter and beyond

Publicly traded companies are expected to show consistent growth to shareholders. And when growth slows or misses expectations, executives are under pressure to explain how they’re going to adjust. 

And despite all of the fancy buzzwords you’ll hear on these calls, there are only a couple of realistic ways that a payment processor can instantly grow revenue over the next few months:

1. Add new merchant accounts
2. Increase revenue per existing merchant account

Everything else like partnerships, new products, international expansion, etc., are all long-term plays that are typically expensive and require cash upfront before investors see a return. 

But raising prices offers an immediate solution. The exact same merchants processing the exact same transaction volume can instantly deliver more revenue if the processor raises rates across the board. 

Key Indicators That Merchant Fees Are Increasing

Payment processors rarely say outright, “We’re raising merchant fees later this year.” But you can read between the lines with results, forecasts, and statements made by executives to predict upcoming rate increases.  

Here are some common signs that your processor is planning to increase your rates:

Margin Expansion Without Volume Growth: One of the biggest red flags is when your processor is reporting or forecasting higher operating margins without any changes to payment volume or merchant counts. That revenue has to come from somewhere it’s usually through new fees and increased processing rates.

Value-Based Pricing Commentary: Phrases like “pricing-to-value” or “monetizing value-added services” are basically corporate terms for charging more money. If an executive says they’re focused on pricing based on the value they provide instead of competing on price, it almost always means that rates will be going up within the next 6-12 months.

Missed Earnings or Flat Growth: This one is pretty self-explanatory. If your processor falls short of expectations or quarterly/YoY growth is flat, then they’ll be under even more pressure to generate revenue for shareholders ASAP. In addition to rate hikes, you might also be getting hit with a new phantom annual fee or something that can instantly generate millions when multiplied across all merchant accounts. 

Optimizing Revenue or ARPU Growth: Any mention of “optimizing” revenue or average revenue per user (or per merchant account) means that your processor is planning to make more money from each existing customer. Price increases and new fees are the easiest path for this strategy.

Restructuring or Transformation Initiatives: Processors announcing strategic transformations or internal cost-cutting programs can also signal a rate increase ahead. In this scenario, they’ll usually look for ways to improve margins while investing in new systems. 

It’s also worth noting that just because your processor had an earnings beat, it doesn’t necessarily mean that you’re in the clear. Processors can exceed quarterly expectations and still plan for upcoming fee increases as part of their forward-looking strategy.

So don’t just quickly glance at the headlines, see estimates were beaten, and assume you’re safe. 

You’ll need to read the actual call transcript, listen to the recording, or pay attention to guidance for upcoming quarters with strategic priorities. That’s where the real signals of rate increases are hiding. 

Real Examples From Recent Earnings Calls

I know some of you might be skeptical about what I’m saying. But trust me, this isn’t just a theory. Let’s look at some actual examples from earnings calls that show exactly how executives telegraph upcoming price changes:

Toast (Q3 2025)

Toast’s November 2025 earnings had the most direct language about pricing that you’ll see from a processor. 

If you listen to the call or read the transcript, you’ll see that CFO Elena Gomez referenced“small targeted pricing moves” as a growth driver of their payments take rate (how much they’re keeping per transaction).

Later in the call she continued to say that Toast’s pricing philosophy remains unchanged, and they’re still planning to make “targeted and surgical price changes.” In basically the next breath, Gomez said, “We can optimize price over time,” and “We’ll be able to drive price over time in small targeted ways.” This was all mentioned alongside bringing new customers in at “market rates.” 

You don’t even really need to read between the lines here. Toast is straight up saying:

1. Growth is coming from our pricing strategy.
2. We’re planning to continue rate hikes.
3. And we’ll onboard customers at a good price, but increase them over time.

This is the exact same playbook they used the previous year, and it’s a clear indication of what they’re planning for 2026.

Fiserv (Q3 2025)

Fiserv released its 3Q25 earnings in October 2025, which significantly missed analyst expectations in terms of revenue, EPS, and forecasted growth outlook. 

The results were so bad that Fiserv’s stock price dropped 44%, its worst day ever. 

CEO Mike Lyons pointed to issues in Argentina for the decline. They had been counting on exceptional growth for that particular market, and when that didn’t happen, the rest of the business couldn’t sustain investor expectations.

What happened next?

Our clients using Fiserv experienced at 0.10% + $0.10 per transaction rate increase applied to their merchant accounts effective November 1, 2025. 

This is a clear example of missed earnings instantly turning into a rate hike for merchants. 

Global Payments (Q3 2025)

Global’s 3Q25 earnings call strongly emphasized “margin expansion” throughout. Executives also used terms like “driving operating leverage” and “unlocking value.” 

At face value this doesn’t instantly scream that rates are about to increase. But if transaction volume and merchant counts are growing modestly, yet margins and EPS keep climbing, the only lever left to pull from is raising rates on existing accounts. 

And shortly after those earnings results, that’s exactly what happened. Global Payments announced a 0.20% per transaction rate increase for merchant accounts, effective January 1, 2026. 

In addition to these rate hikes, some Global subsidiaries (like Heartland) began charging merchants a $450 infrastructure upgrade fee in Q4 2025. 

Meanwhile, the earnings call explicitly talks about simplifying and consolidating infrastructure to cut costs and improve margins. Meaning there’s no “upgrade” for merchants. But Global is still charging you for it. 

This is exactly what “margin expansion” looks like from a processor’s perspective. They can easily earn more money on the same processing volume at the expense of their customers. 

How Merchants Can Prepare

As a business owner or CFO, you obviously can’t control your processor’s earning calls. But you can leverage the information in these calls to predict upcoming rate hikes.

The biggest mistake you can make is being reactive. Don’t wait until your processor increases your rates. 

Instead:

1. Set a reminder for your processor’s upcoming earnings call. 
2. You don’t have to listen to the full call, but at minimum, review the transcript and analyst summaries.
3. Look for any of the key indicators and red-flag phrases discussed above that often signal an upcoming rate increase.
4. Then negotiate proactively before your processor has a chance to increase your rates.
5. This is also a good time to analyze your statements for new fees and other “services” you might be getting charged for that should be adjusted.

This is really one of the most overlooked ways for merchants to prepare for payment processor rate increases. 

Instead of waiting until you get a 30-day notice of changes that will be applied to your next statement, an earnings call can telegraph these plans months in advance to give you the upper hand. So you can lock-in better terms and ensure your account isn’t impacted by a massive rate hike. 

Final Thoughts

Yes, earnings calls are designed for investors. But they’re also an early warning system for savvy merchants who know what to listen for.

There are certain buzzwords that are basically corporate speak for “we’re going to raise prices on our current customers.” Others take a bit more reading between the lines, but they’re fairly easy to uncover. And you can usually tell when executives are under pressure to generate more revenue as quickly as possible.

The next major opportunity for you to spot these signals is coming soon, as most processors will be releasing Q4 2025 earnings results in January and February 2026. 

These year-end calls are often the most important because companies use fourth-quarter earnings to outline strategic priorities for the upcoming year. This often includes pricing strategies and growth targets.

So pay close attention to these calls. Your processor might directly or indirectly tell you that your rates will be rising at some point in 2026.

I’ll publish any noteworthy earnings and key takeaways from those calls as they become available. So keep checking the blog or subscribe to our newsletter to get these insights delivered straight to your inbox every month.