by Matt Rej
PayPal started 2026 in the wrong direction with earnings missing expectations and poor growth numbers, which aligned with the downward momentum we’ve seen over the last few years, and ultimately led to their CEO being fired after just 16 months on the job.
Though 2Q26 earnings suggest that PayPal is beginning to stabilize.
Both revenue and payment volume increased while Braintree and Venmo continued performing well. And leadership actually raised its full-year outlook.
But the biggest PayPal story right now has little to do with their quarterly earnings.
Stripe, with the help of a private equity firm, has reportedly offered more than $53 billion to acquire PayPal. CEO Enrique Lores didn’t address Stripe by name on yesterday’s earnings call. But he said enough to make it clear that a sale has not been ruled out.
Key Numbers From PayPal’s 2Q26 Results
Here are some of the key numbers that stood out to me from PayPal’s latest earnings:
- Revenue increased 5% to $8.7 billion.
- Total payment volume reached $486.4 billion (up 9%).
- Branded checkout volume increased 2%.
- Braintree and Venmo both delivered mid-teens payment volume growth.
- BNPL volume increased 26%.
- Total active accounts remained essentially flat at 439 million.
- PayPal raised its full-year transaction margin guidance to ~15.6 billion and non-GAAP EPS guidance to ~5.38 billion.
Overall, this is clearly better than PayPal’s performance in late 2025. But I’d describe this as stabilizing. Not surging or thriving.
Most of what’s encouraging comes from Braintree, Venmo, and BNPL. And that’s exactly what PayPal’s leadership is leaning into moving forward.
They want to evolve Venmo from a straight P2P payments app into more of a money management solution. Starting by ensuring the core P2P experience is strong, and then they plan to create a more personalized experience for financial services offered. They’re also doubling down on what’s previously been reported on leveraging Braintree to sell more VAS to enterprise accounts.
Is Stripe Really Trying to Buy PayPal?
According to Reuters, Stripe and Advent International offered to acquire PayPal for $60.50 per share. The proposal values the company at over $53 billion.
Under the structure, Stripe and Advent would each own an equal stake in PayPal.
But no agreement has been reached, and there’s no guarantee that this offer will actually result in a transaction.
And while there have been reports of a real offer, proposed new ownership structure, and financing behind the deal, PayPal has not publicly confirmed any discussions.
What PayPal CEO Enrique Lores Said About the Stripe Offer
Lores waited until the end of his prepared statement to address the proposed acquisition reports.
He did not mention Stripe, Advent, or the $53 billion proposal by name. Though he did say quickly cover “recent M&A speculation” with some carefully worded points:
- PayPal doesn’t comment on potential merger discussions.
- It’s the board’s responsibility to “maximize shareholder value.”
- Leadership believes that the existing transformation strategy can still create significant value.
- Executing the current strategy is still PayPal’s focus.
- PayPal remains “open and objective” when evaluating other opportunities.
- Management would consider any path that could create “superior value” compared to continuing with its existing strategy.
This is basically the standard corporate way of addressing an acquisition offer without officially confirming that negotiations are taking place. But I think it’s pretty easy to read between the lines here.
PayPal is not denying that an offer was made. And they’re definitely not ruling out a potential sale.
Obviously, Lores is going to say that he believes in the existing strategy that he put into place just a few months ago. But at the end of the day, it’s up to the board to determine what’s going to make the most money for shareholders.
Do I Think Stripe Will Actually Buy PayPal?
My interpretation is that PayPal is not opposed to being acquired. It’s possible, and the door is definitely open. But I wouldn’t call it likely or inevitable under the current proposal.
The offer definitely seems serious. Stripe and Advent have reported arranged substantial financing, and the two companies seem to be the most credible bidders. So this isn’t some hypothetical idea being floated by analysts.
There’s also a clear strategic logic behind the combination.
Stripe is primarily built around merchants, payment infrastructure, and business-facing financial services. If they acquire PayPal, they’d get an additional 439 million active consumer and merchant accounts, the PayPal checkout button, Venmo, consumer lending products, and BNPL services.
Together, the merged companies would process an estimated $3.7 trillion in annual payment volume.
But there are still major obstacles:
- PayPal will likely counter with a higher price.
- A merger of this size would face significant regulatory scrutiny.
- Stripe and PayPAl have overlapping online payment processing products.
- Braintree or other PayPal assets may need to be separated to address antitrust concerns.
- Integrating two massive payment infrastructures would be complicated.
My read is that the current offer is more likely the beginning of a conversation that may not come to terms until later this year at the earliest.
A higher offer or different structure could move things forward. Though PayPal’s latest 2Q26 results give the board more leverage to wait rather than accepting the $60.50 per share immediately.
When the report came out mid-July, the offer was nearly a 30% premium. But PayPal’s stock has surged since the offer was made, and climbed even higher since the latest earnings were released. As of right now, the $60.50 per share offer is closer to market value, tilting leverage in PayPal’s favor if they want to hold out for a better price.
Final Thoughts
For merchants, nothing changes today.
PayPal, Braintree, Venmo, and PayPal Checkout are all still operating as usual, and there’s no reason to make a processing decision based on acquisition speculation.
But this serves as another reminder of how quickly things can change for merchants. We’ve seen this before industry-wide. When processors get acquired, their strategy, pricing, and product priorities can also change quickly and directly impact merchant fees.
So this is a good time for PayPal and Braintree merchants to understand exactly how their accounts are structured and what they’re paying.
We’ll continue to keep an eye on the Stripe story for any new developments. But for now, just focus on optimizing your current PayPal/Braintree pricing as though PayPal will never be acquired. It will save you money now, and help put you in a better position if a deal is ultimately made down the road.